The minute
Zambia launched its national carbon registry on August 7, 2026, administered by the Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA) under the Green Economy and Climate Change Act No. 18 of 2024, with Article 6 cooperation agreements signed with Switzerland and Norway.
Brazil, through its emissions trading system (SBCE) established by Law 15.042/2024, targets 100 million tonnes of CO2e reduction between 2031 and 2035, with up to 50 million tonnes eligible for international transfer under Article 6.2.
Ecuador’s National Assembly approved carbon market reforms that include a National Climate Change Registry and safeguards for Indigenous communities, pending presidential signature after a similar bill was vetoed in 2024.
Why it matters
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon credit transfers, is moving from negotiation to implementation. With 87 carbon pricing policies operating globally, covering more than 29% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and over $107 billion in public revenue generated in 2025 (according to the World Bank), the infrastructure being built by countries like Zambia, Brazil, and Ecuador will determine how cross-border carbon markets function in practice.
The three cases reflect distinct stages of readiness. Zambia now has a live registry capable of tracking carbon units from issuance to cancellation. Brazil is defining methodologies for its regulated market, with first approvals expected by the end of 2026, and is exploring an Article 6.2 memorandum of understanding with China. Ecuador still awaits executive approval but has advanced legislation separating regulated, voluntary, and non-market approaches. Global carbon credit issuance rose 8% between 2024 and 2025, though prices fell slightly overall, with higher-quality credits maintaining premiums.
How Zambia’s registry works in practice
Zambia’s national carbon registry is designed to track the full lifecycle of a carbon unit, from project registration through issuance, transfer, and cancellation. ZEMA is required under the 2026 regulations to maintain the registry as part of the country’s measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) system. The registry holds information on carbon credit projects and activities across the country, and its records are publicly reviewable.
The system covers both Article 6 activities and voluntary carbon market projects. Zambia’s framework also includes rules for corresponding adjustments (the accounting mechanism that prevents the same emission reduction from being counted by both the selling and buying country), fees, and the transition of existing voluntary projects into Article 6 structures. For project developers already operating in Zambia’s voluntary market, this means a formal pathway now exists to migrate credits into the internationally regulated framework.
On the international side, the cooperation agreement with Switzerland was signed at COP30. The arrangement with Norway specifically covers credits generated from renewable power projects. These bilateral deals give Zambia defined channels for transferring carbon units to buyer countries under Article 6.2.
What Brazil is building, and what changes for operators
Brazil’s SBCE is structured as a national cap-and-trade market. It will include obligations for large emitters, emissions monitoring and reporting requirements, and a central registry. The methodologies that Brazil plans to approve by the end of 2026 are critical because they set the rules for measuring emission reductions and removals, and they determine how those results can become eligible carbon units within the system.
In July 2026, the Brazilian government opened a public consultation on a draft resolution covering the approval and transfer of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs). The proposal would connect ITMO approvals directly to the SBCE, requiring all mitigation outcomes to be recorded in the system before they can be transferred internationally. For operators, this means that any entity seeking to generate transferable credits under Article 6.2 will need to register activity within the SBCE framework and follow its methodology and reporting protocols.
A potential Article 6.2 memorandum of understanding with China would create a bilateral channel for ITMO transfers between two of the world’s largest economies, though no formal agreement has been signed yet.
What Ecuador’s reform separates, and what remains unresolved
Ecuador’s legislation, if signed by President Daniel Noboa, would create three distinct legal categories: regulated carbon markets, voluntary carbon markets, and non-market approaches. This separation matters because it defines which transactions require government oversight and corresponding adjustments, and which operate outside the Article 6 framework.
Parliamentary discussions have focused on protecting Indigenous and local communities, ensuring fair benefit sharing from carbon projects on communal lands, and preventing double counting of emission reductions. For a country with large forests and other natural ecosystems, these safeguards will shape whether carbon projects can scale without displacing or excluding the communities that manage those ecosystems.
The main unresolved question is executive approval. The 2024 veto means there is no guarantee that the current version will be signed, even after completing the extended legislative process.
The common mistake, and what decides next
The most frequent error countries and project developers make at this stage is treating registry creation as the final step. A registry is necessary infrastructure, but it does not resolve questions of methodology quality, corresponding adjustment accounting, or buyer confidence. Countries that launch registries without clear rules for MRV, baseline setting, and additionality risk generating credits that international buyers will not accept at competitive prices.
What decides the next phase is whether these systems can produce credits that meet the higher-quality thresholds the market is now rewarding. The World Bank data showing that higher-quality credits maintained price premiums while overall prices fell signals that buyers are becoming more selective. The registries, methodologies, and legal frameworks being built in Zambia, Brazil, and Ecuador will be tested against that standard.
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