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Super El Niño probability tops 90%, NOAA reports

Leia em português → By · Updated Oct 1, 2026, 04:03 · ⏱ readable in 40s
Close-up of cracked, arid soil showing detailed textures and patterns, indicative of drought conditions.
Photo: James Frid / Pexels

The minute

  • The probability of a Super El Niño has risen above 90%, according to NOAA.
  • India, Africa and the Americas are already facing droughts and agricultural losses before the phenomenon reaches its extreme phase.
  • Food supply chains in those regions are under growing pressure from climate-driven disruptions.

Why it matters

A Super El Niño amplifies extreme weather across multiple continents simultaneously, compounding food insecurity in regions that are already vulnerable. The fact that droughts and crop failures are occurring before peak intensity suggests the worst impacts are still ahead, raising the risk of cascading effects on global commodity prices and humanitarian conditions.

El Niño events of this magnitude historically correlate with record global temperatures and severe disruptions to agricultural calendars. With pressure on food systems already building across three major regions, governments and supply chain operators face a narrowing window to prepare adaptation and response measures. Full details via ClimaInfo.

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