The minute
- Japan Airlines (JAL) signed a carbon removal deal with Climeworks Solutions described as the first designed to meet ICAO’s CORSIA requirements, though the companies did not disclose the value or volume of credits covered.
- The agreement includes a portfolio of carbon removal projects (soil carbon sequestration, biochar) selected for CORSIA eligibility, plus separate direct air capture (DAC) credits from Climeworks’ operations in Iceland.
- CORSIA’s second phase starts in 2027 and runs through 2035, with the sector-wide offsetting baseline set at 85% of 2019 emissions from international aviation covered by the scheme.
Why it matters: This deal signals that carbon removals are beginning to cross from the voluntary market into aviation’s regulated compliance pipeline. CORSIA currently lists eight approved programs for its 2024-2026 first phase, but approval of a program does not automatically make every credit eligible. The JAL-Climeworks agreement is described as “designed to meet” CORSIA requirements, not as credits already canceled against a CORSIA obligation. That distinction matters: the pathway from voluntary removal purchase to verified CORSIA compliance unit still has regulatory steps that remain untested at scale.
What remains undecided, and what needs to happen
Several critical questions are still open. ICAO has not yet published the full list of programs and unit types approved for CORSIA’s second phase (2027-2035). The eight programs currently approved cover the first phase (2024-2026), and each program’s eligible credits depend on project activity, methodology, vintage, and other conditions. Whether engineered carbon removal methods like direct air capture will qualify as CORSIA Eligible Emissions Units at scale depends on ICAO’s future decisions on methodology approval and permanence criteria.
Climeworks launched its compliance-focused “Solutions” service in July 2026, positioning carbon removal portfolios for frameworks including CORSIA, Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, and the EU’s Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming Certification Framework (CRCF). The EU CRCF itself is still being implemented, with certification methodologies under development. Airlines and removal developers are, in effect, building portfolios around regulatory frameworks whose final rules are not yet locked in. That creates both opportunity and risk: early movers could secure supply, but they also face the possibility that specific credits may not ultimately qualify.
Who gains and who loses
Airlines with early access to CORSIA-compliant removal portfolios gain a competitive advantage. JAL positions itself ahead of competitors who may face a supply crunch as CORSIA’s second phase begins. Analysts at Sylvera have flagged a potential 125-million-credit gap before 2028, suggesting demand for CORSIA-eligible units could outstrip supply. Airlines that wait may pay more or struggle to find qualifying credits.
Carbon removal developers with diversified portfolios and regulatory expertise stand to benefit. Climeworks’ “Solutions” model, which bundles different removal methods into compliance-ready packages, could become a template. Developers focused solely on voluntary market buyers may find that compliance-grade requirements (monitoring, reporting, verification standards set by ICAO) raise the bar beyond what their current projects can meet.
Traditional offset providers could lose ground. If airlines shift purchasing toward removal-based credits designed for CORSIA, demand for conventional avoidance-based offsets in aviation could weaken. That said, CORSIA currently accepts credits from programs like Verra and Gold Standard that include avoidance projects, so the transition is unlikely to be abrupt.
JAL’s broader emissions picture
JAL targets a 10% reduction in aircraft CO₂ emissions by FY2030 from FY2019 levels, to 8.28 million metric tons. The airline also aims for SAF to reach at least 10% of total fuel use by FY2030, though SAF accounted for just 1% in FY2025. Carbon removals, then, are positioned as a complement to direct emission reduction, not a substitute. JAL said it met its FY2025 target of keeping net aircraft CO₂ emissions below FY2019 levels using a combination of fuel-efficient aircraft, operational improvements, SAF, and carbon credits.
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