The minute
- China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration published the 15th five-year plan for coal on August 10, covering 2026-2030, calling to “promote coal consumption successfully reaching a peak” during the period.
- The plan sets no concrete total production target but requires 87% of coal to come from large-scale, modernized mines by 2030, with four northern provinces (Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang) supplying over 80% of national output.
- Coalbed methane production is targeted at 26 billion cubic metres by 2030, with mine-gas utilisation at 6.5 billion cubic metres, though the plan establishes no absolute methane-emissions reduction target.
Why it matters
The plan reinforces coal as China’s “foundational energy” while acknowledging the need for a consumption peak. State-affiliated media suggest coal could peak “around 2027,” but the plan itself sets no government-endorsed peak year. In the first half of 2026, coal’s share of total energy consumption fell to 51.4%, and non-fossil energy already accounted for more than half of China’s power mix in 2025.
Analysts note the document is “neither a coal phase-out nor phase-down plan.” It directs coal companies to plan for a “smooth transition” including workforce relocation, debt resolution and ecological restoration, while encouraging expansion into power, new energy and chemicals. Reserve production capacity is targeted at 100 million metric tonnes annually by 2030, reduced from an initial 2024 goal of 300 million tonnes. Full analysis via Carbon Brief.
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